For the past year, I've been coaching business owners on AI adoption and building tools to help them implement it.
My estimate? Only 10-15% will succeed. I didn't start out thinking that, but reality has a way of educating you.
Here's why—and why this matters more than you might think.
The Paradox
Most owners are drowning in operational reality. You have existing processes, legacy systems, teams to manage, and competing demands pulling you in twelve directions. This infrastructure—the very thing that made you successful—has become an anchor.
Meanwhile, I now run agent systems that automate 15 different tasks I used to do manually. What took me 10 hours now takes 3 minutes.
Here's the scary part: some 25-year-old with 35 tuned agents is already working on recreating your entire business model. No legacy systems to migrate. No team to retrain. No "but we've always done it this way."
They're unburdened. And the unburdened move faster.
Legacy companies are bringing multimillion-dollar planes to a drone war where $1,000 drones can blow them up.
What's Coming and When
By next year, we'll start hearing about PE plays rolling up traditional businesses and implementing AI to strip out massive costs. That will be the first wave. I'm already hearing about it anecdotally, but by next year we'll start seeing proof.
The PE wave will come from the top down, but soon after, you'll see that 25-year-old with 35 agents coming from the bottom up.
How long will this take? I don't know, but here's my guess:
You have a 1-2 year window right now to make unreasonable profits with AI. The tools are good enough to earn multiples of what you did before at almost no additional cost.
After that window, non-adopters will be mowed down—first by PE, then by disruptors coming up from the bottom. Within 5 years, entire industries will be radically altered.
Is There Any Hope?
I have to admit, I'm pessimistic about most existing small businesses.
Surviving in the new era requires massive changes to companies and new skill sets for owners. I think only the most determined and resourceful will make the transition.
But those 10% of existing owners who dedicate serious time—I'm talking 50%+ of their attention—to learning and adopting this technology? They're positioned for exponential growth while everyone else waits for the guillotine to fall.
The clock is ticking.
It's not fair. But it's happening.
Alan
PS: If you're interested in being in that 10%, sign up for the OwnerRx waitlist. Our solution is focused on helping business owners adapt to the coming tsunami.